Cost prediction model based on system dynamics in water resource project

Hirijanto, Hirijanto and Mundra, I Wayan and Utomo, Addy (2019) Cost prediction model based on system dynamics in water resource project. In: the 4th SCESCM INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE SUSTAINABLE CIVIL ENGINEERING STRUCTURES AND CONTRUCTIONS MARTERIALS, Yogyakarta.

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Project’s cost is one of important components in project achievement. Because of the uniqueness of construction projects, cost estimation always differs from project to project. The rate of cost components always change over time make difficult to forecast the cost for the upcoming project. The cost component consists of many influencing variables where there is interrelationship each other affecting to the total project cost. This paper objective is to develop a cost prediction model to assist the project planners in cost estimation for future projects. System dynamic is one of the appropriate methods to analyse system behaviour with interrelationship referring to the historic data, so it is able to predict the future project. Developing the model, primary and secondary data are collected from previous studies, interview with the government planner and survey in Malang Regency. The model simulation is Brick work unit with its components. Data from last thirteen years are used to verify and validate the developed model by causal loop diagram as a basic method in system dynamic. The finding showed that the model is closed to real condition through the validation mechanism. The developed system is useful in decision making of budget planning based on work quantity.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Prediction model, Project cost, System dynamics
Subjects: Engineering > Civil Engineering
Divisions: Fakultas teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan > Teknik Sipil S1
Depositing User: Mr Sayekti Aditya Endra
Date Deposited: 23 Sep 2019 03:42
Last Modified: 24 Sep 2019 07:14

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