PENGARUH RISIKO KETERLAMBATAN OPERASIONAL TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN BERINVESTASI PADA JALAN TOL SEMARANG DEMAK

Faris Haqqul Anwar, Faris Haqqul Anwar (2025) PENGARUH RISIKO KETERLAMBATAN OPERASIONAL TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN BERINVESTASI PADA JALAN TOL SEMARANG DEMAK. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Nasional Malang.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Faris Haqqul Anwar Studi Magister Teknik Sipil, Program Pascasarjana, Institut Teknologi Nasional Malang, Agustus 2025, Pengaruh Risiko Keterlambatan Operasional Terhadap Keputusan Berinvestasi Pada Jalan Tol Semarang Demak, Tesis, Pembimbing: (I) Prof.Dr. Ir. Sutanto Hidayat, MT (II) Dr. Erni Yulianti, ST., MT Jalan, sebagai salah satu elemen utama infrastruktur transportasi, memiliki peran krusial dalam meningkatkan konektivitas antar wilayah, mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, serta meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Namun, Jalan Nasional Semarang-Demak, yang merupakan bagian dari jaringan Pantura, seringkali mengalami kemacetan parah, banjir rob, dan penurunan muka tanah (land subsidence), yang menghambat kelancaran arus barang dan jasa. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut dan meningkatkan kapasitas serta kualitas layanan transportasi, pemerintah merencanakan pembangunan Jalan Tol Semarang-Demak yang terintegrasi dengan tanggul laut. Proyek strategis nasional ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan konektivitas regional, mempercepat waktu tempuh, mengurangi biaya logistik, serta melindungi wilayah pesisir dari ancaman banjir rob. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode campuran (mixed methods) yaitu mengkombinasikan metode kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Menggunakan analisis sensitivitas dan analisis SWOT. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Pengaruh Keterlambatan terhadap NPV dan IRR: Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa keterlambatan operasional memiliki dampak negatif yang signifikan terhadap kelayakan finansial proyek. Seiring dengan meningkatnya waktu keterlambatan, nilai NPV menurun dan nilai IRR menurun. Pada skenario keterlambatan lebih dari 10 tahun yaitu melebihi tahun 2030, Investasi bahkan menjadi Tidak Layak secara finansial karena NPV negatif menunjukkan bahwa proyek atau investasi tersebut merugikan karena nilai sekarang dari arus kas masuk lebih kecil dari investasi awal. Strategi Mitigasi yang Efektif: Berdasarkan analisis SWOT, beberapa strategi mitigasi yang efektif untuk mengurangi dampak keterlambatan operasional antara lain: Penguatan Kerjasama dengan Pemerintah Daerah, Penggunaan Teknologi Konstruksi yang Tepat Guna, Penerapan Manajemen Risiko yang Proaktif dan Pengelolaan Stakeholder yang Efektif. Kata kunci : Jalan Tol Semarang Demak. Keputusan Berinvestasi, Risiko Keterlambatan Operasional. ABSTRACT Faris Haqqul Anwar, Civil Engineering Master's Program, Postgraduate Program, National Institute of Technology Malang, September 2025, The Influence of Operational Delay Risk on Investment Decisions in the Semarang-Demak Toll Road, Thesis, Supervisors: (I) Prof. Dr. Ir. Sutanto Hidayat, MT (II) Dr. Erni Yulianti, ST., MT Roads play as a key element in a transportation infrastructure with major role in improving connectivity between regions, driving the economic growth and improving public welfare. Unfortunately, the Semarang-Demak National Road, as a part of Pantura (North Coast) road network frequently experiences severe congestions, tidal flooding and land subsidence as the constraints that able to delay the smoothness flow of goods and services in these areas. To address these issues and improve capacity and quality of transportation services, the government is planning to build the Semarang-Demak Toll Road, integrated with a sea wall. This national strategic project is expected to improve the connectivity along regional areas, shorten the travel times, reduce logistic costs and protect protect coastal areas from tidal flooding threat. The method used in this study was a mixed method where it is a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods aided by sensitivity analysis and SWOT analysis. Result of study on the effect of Delay on NPV and IRR values: from sensitivity analysis, showed that operational delay have a significant negative impact on the financial feasibility of the project. As the delay time increases, NPV and IRR values decrease. Further, in the scenario of delay of more than 10 years (more than 2030), the investment becomes detrimental since the present value of the cash inflow is less than the initial investment. Meanwhile the effective mitigation strategies proposed in this study are: based on the SWOT analysis, there are several effective mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of operational delays such as strengthening cooperation with local government, using appropriate construction technology, and implementing proactive risk management and effective stakeholder management. Keywords : Toll Road of Semarang-Demak, Investment Decision Making, Risk of Operational Delay

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords : Toll Road of Semarang-Demak, Investment Decision Making, Risk of Operational Delay
Subjects:	Engineering > Civil Engineering
Divisions:	Program Pasca Sarjana > Teknik Sipil S2 > Teknik Sipil S2(Tesis)
Depositing User:	Faris Haqqul Anwar
Date Deposited:	08 Sep 2025 05:41
Last Modified:	08 Sep 2025 05:41
URI:	http://eprints.itn.ac.id/id/eprint/14983

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